Friday 08/21/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday 08/21/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

-------------------------------------------------------------------

FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

MLB | Aug 21
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals
+120 at SPBOOK > 15h.
Milwaukee comes to town and faces a surprisingly hot Washington pitcher. The Nationals are 4-1 in the last 5 starts made by 26-year old J.D. Martin, who has a 2.35 ERA his last three starts. He doesn't walk anyone, which is a huge plus in a big park like this. The Brewers may be favored with a 10-game winner on the hill, but Braden Looper has not thrown well, with a 5.03 ERA. The team is 1-4 in his last 5 starts. Play the Nationals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Aug 21
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
+115 at SPBOOK > 15h.
On Friday I have a killer late phone card.To go with that late phone card is a Killer comp play.The Boston Redsox tonight.Game 922 at 7:05 eastern.Boston was totally embarrassed,getting swept in their 4 game series with the Yanks in NY.Boston had won the prior 8 games vs the Yankees before the beating in the Bronx.Tonight they come home off back to back road wins.The same situation as NY.Boston is still 8-4 vs NY. this year and the Yankees have lost all 6 games in Boston this year.However the Redsox are an underdog here.For technical analysis we go the systems chart and see that road favorites such as the Yankees in off a road favored win,scoring 4 or less taking on an opponent also off a road game are just 3-11 straight up.IF the total in these games is 10 or higher our road favorites go from 3-11 to 0-5.In the pitching matchup the Yankees have A.Pettite going and he has been solid on the road this year.In his only start in Boston this year he went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs.Serviceable but not great.Boston counters with B.Penny tonight.In his last 2 home starts vs NY.he has allowed 1 earned run in 13 innings.Penny teams are 4-0 vs the Yankees and he has a solid 2.31 era in those starts.Which indicates that he can navigate sucessfully through that lineup.The Yankees are just 1-3 in road games when the total is 10 to 10.5.Boston is 14-5 at home with a 10 to 10.5 total.The Redsox average 5.7 runs per game at home and will seek immediate revenge for the sweep.On Friday I have a Double system bases play from 11-1 and 20-4 systems one of which wins by an average 6-2 score.In football its a big 21-2 system leading the way.Dont miss these big Power moves.Those with me on Thursday cashed the 5 star totals play.More damage tonight.Take Boston tonight bol RV-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robbie Gainous

MLB | Aug 21
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
-145 at BETUS > 18h.
This is the second game of a four-game set between the host LA Dodgers and the visiting Chicago Cubs. At the time of this writing we do not know the outcome of Game One in this series so this game could be to take a 2-0 lead or to even the series at a game apiece. In either case we expect the Dodgers to come out on top tonight with Randy Wolf on the bump with his 7-6 record and ERA of 3.49 on the season. He is 1-2 at home with an ERA of 4.03 but the Dodgers have posted a record of 9-3 when Wolf takes the hill at Chavez Ravine. Over his last three outings he is perfect going 2-0 with an ERA of 3.18 and LA is 3-0 in those three games behind him. LA is 20-4 (+15.3) in home games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons. Wolf is 10-0 (+10.4) in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 4-22 (-17.4) as an underdog of +100 or higher this season and 4-18 (-13.4) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. We will lay the chalk with the host as the Dodgers grab a win in Game Two of this series on Friday night at the Ravine.

Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers 3 Chicago Cubs 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R&R Totals

NFL | Aug 21
Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys Total
38 ov-110 at BODOG > 16h.
Free NFL Preseason Over-Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

MLB | Aug 21
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
+115 at SPBOOK > 15h.
Free MLB Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mikey Sports

MLB | Aug 21
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres St Louis Cardinals
-150 at BODOG > 18h.
Free MLB Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

FRIDAY TWINS/ROYALS OVER 9.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 8)

The Chicago Cubs finally found the ball in their last game with the San Diego Padres Wednesday. The Cubbies scored just four runs in their first two games at Petco Park.

According to the Chicago Tribune, Chicago has a 3-13 record in stadiums with big outfields. Now the team continues its West Coast tour in Los Angeles where it will take to the turf at Dodger Stadium. The home of the Dodgers ranks fifth among pitchers' park in the majors with a park factor of 0.887 (a rating over 1.000 is considered a hitter’s park).

"Wrigley Field is a smaller ball park that plays to our scheme of things a lot better," Cubs manager Lou Piniella told reporters, adding the Cubs are "built for power."

"You need athleticism, you need more stolen bases," Piniella said. "I think we're last in the league in stolen bases.

"Look, our team has to hit, and when we don't hit, we look flatter."

Heading into Thursday’s series opener, Los Angeles has a 28-29-4 over/under at home while Chicago carries a 25-33-3 over/under on the road. The Cubs hit .242 away from Wrigley and average just under four runs per road game.

Pick: Under 8


San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (-164, 9.5)

Rockies leadoff hitter Carlos Gonzalez isn’t leaving the big swinging to the middle of the order.

The left fielder has hit a home run in four straight games heading into Thursday’s series finale with the Washington Nationals. That recent tear has helped Colorado win three in a row and seven of its last 10 games, securing a one-game lead over the Giants for the National League wild card.

While Gonzalez gets the headlines, center fielder Dexter Fowler has also been lethal at the plate, hitting second in the order. This month, Fowler is hitting just under .400 with four RBIs and 30 total bases in August.

"We've gotten to a point in time in the season where we're playing games to win, something a lot of people didn't think would happen," Rockies manager Jim Tracy told the media. "So it makes sense to continue to develop two very dynamic young players and also give ourselves a chance to continue to win games. I think this is a smart thing to try. We're not hurting ourselves one bit and we could possibly be enhancing ourselves even more."

Colorado has won 21 of the past 27 games against San Francisco including taking all five meetings between these NL West rivals in 2009.

Pick: Colorado -164

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

J.D. Martin, Washington Nationals (2-2, 4.61)

We don’t get to talk about Nats starters very often when it comes to win streaks, so we have to jump on it when the opportunity arises.

Washington has won Martin’s last three starts and he seems to be getting better with every trip to the hill. Perhaps the rookie is getting over some beginner’s jitters after he gave up five earned runs in two of his first three starts.

Martin’s ERA is just 2.35 over his past three outings, though he’s been a consistent over bet lately with his last five starts toppling the total.


Slumping

Sean O’Sullivan, Los Angeles Angels (3-1, 5.91)

O’Sullivan is living the dream life of a rookie pitcher through eight starts – his team is covering up all his mistakes with its play at the plate.

The Angels are 7-1 in the 22-year-old right-hander’s starts despite the fact he has a ballooning ERA that is greater than 10 runs over his past three starts. That’s good for bettors. The lofty ERA means O’Sully is usually an underdog when he steps on the mound and that has helped him climb to No. 12 in our starting pitcher money standings.

O’Sullivan gave up 12 runs in fewer than nine innings in his two most recent games – both of which were against AL East opponents. He faces the Jays Friday.

Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-6, 5.51 ERA)

It was a toss-up of whether to go with Morton or his Friday counterpart, Micah Owings, for our second slumper. Both guys have ERAs of more than 11 runs over their past three games.

Let’s let them battle for our love as the Reds and Bucs fight for last place in the NL Central.

We’ll hold Morton dearest to our hearts for now because he’s the dude who started the hemorrhaging in the Cubs’ 17-2 massacre over the Pirates last week. Viewer discretion is advised before looking at Morton’s stats in that one: One inning pitched. Forty-nine pitches. Seven hits. Ten earned runs. One battered ego.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Weekend Cheat Sheet

The hot summer days are warming up the MLB pennant races. The Boston Red Sox should have fire in their eyes at Fenway Park when they look to avenge a four-game series sweep suffered two weeks in the Big Apple.

Along with that series, let’s take a look into the top four series on the base paths this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are “team starts” (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Most Recent Series Result: Marlins 6-3 last nine games (5-3 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Marlins 3-0 away (3-0 this season)

Key Day/Month Stat: Marlins 4-0 Fridays; Braves 1-4 home Fridays

Best Arm in the Series: Braves’ Jurrjens 2-0, 11.00 ERA home career team starts

Worst Arm in the Series: Braves’ Vazquez 0-4, 5.62 ERA last four home team starts

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

Most Recent Series Result: Dodgers 7-3 last 10 games (2-2 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Dodgers 9-5 home

Key Day/Month Stat: Cubs 6-0 Saturdays; Dodgers 2-6 Saturdays

Best Arm in the Series: Cubs’ Dempster 6-1 3.03 ERA career team starts

Worst Arm in the Series: Dodgers’ Billingsley 1-3 3.33 ERA career team starts

AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Most Recent Series Result: Yankees 4-0 last four games (4-7 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Red Sox 7-0 last seven home (6-0 this season)

Key Day/Month Stat: Yankees 16-4 Fridays; Red Sox 2-4 home Fridays

Best Arm in the Series: Red Sox’ Penny 4-0, 2.28 ERA career team starts

Worst Arm in the Series: Yankees’ Sabathia 2-8, 4.74 ERA last 10 team starts

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Most Recent Series Result: Rays 3-0 last three games (3-0 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Rays 12-4 last 16 home

Key Day/Month Stat: Rays 13-2 Saturdays; Rangers 2-9 Saturdays

Best Arm in the Series: Kazmir 4-0, 1.89 home career teams starts; Garza 2-0, 1.89 ERA home career team starts

Worst Arm in the Series: None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(923) TEXAS RANGERS
(924) TAMPA BAY RAYS
Take "(923) TEXAS RANGERS"

The Rangers continue to play terrific ball and I think they're a good value tonight at Tampa Bay. The Rays are tough at home, but Scott Kazmir has been extremely erratic and I trust Rangers righty Dustin Nippert more right now. This game sure looks like a tossup, which makes Texas a decent play just on the line value alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al

(921) NEW YORK YANKEES
(922) BOSTON RED SOX
Take "Under"

At 7:10 pm our complimentary selection is on the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. Yankee veteran lefthander Andy Pettitte is quietly having one of his best seasons in years, and if you took a poll amongst the Yankee players who was their "unsung hero" for 2009, they likely would tell you it's the 37-year-old southpaw, now in his third year back in pinstripes after having played his first ten Major League seasons in the Bronx before switching over to the NL. Pettitte has done everything the Yanks could have hoped for with a 9-6 record and 4.09 ERA and 13 quality starts and he would have quite a few more wins on the year if his teammates had given him better run support in many of his outings. It hasn't quite been the same kind of year for first-time Red Sox starter Brad Penny, but the veteran righthander has a funny way of showing up for big games like this one. For example, In two career starts against the Yankees, he is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA over 11 innings and he also pitches markedly better at home than he does on the road, posting a 5-2 record in 12 starts in Fenway so far. Pettitte last started against the Red Sox on Aug. 9 in New York and fired seven scoreless, five-hit innings but took a no-decision in New York's 5-2 win. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics

Detroit Tigers -144

1* Take the Detroit Tigers on the Moneyline, The Tigers have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Edwin Jackson (9-5, 2.85 ERA). Jackson has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.79 over 13 starts and he pitched solid in his only start against the Athletics allowing just 6 hits and 1 earned run over 7 innings. Gio Gonzalez (4-3, 5.88) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 9.00 over 5 starts and he is 0-2 with an ERA of 14.84 in two career starts against the Tigers. The Tigers opponents are hitting just .207 as a team against them over their last 7 games while averaging just 2.9 rpg and the Tigers are 6-1 in Jackson's last 7 starts as a favorite. Take the Detroit Tigers as my MLB Bonus Play for Friday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline
Currently on a 20-9-1 comp play run the last 30 days.

We have to side with the host again tonight at Chavez Ravine, as the Cubs come into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, and have also lost 8 of their last 11 overall.

The Dodgers got the job done 7-2 last night, and are a money-making 19-7 in Randy Wolf's last 26 starts as a favorite.

Los Angeles has also won 6 of the last 8 series meetings against the Cubbies. Keep in mind Chicago is a full 10 games under .500 on the road this season, and starter Randy Wells last road start was an ugly 5 inning, 5 run loss at Colorado.

Joe Torre's team has certainly cooled off after their blistering start, but they are still 38-24 at home, and we feel this is a very cheap price on the home favorite this Friday night.

Play on the men in blue.
4♦ LOS ANGELES

 

[tannguyen94]

200♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX RUN LINE (Take Floyd over Guthrie) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

100♦ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -

thanks, I got cws +1.5 -$105 at betphoenix????? I hope that they don't cancel the bet.

 

[owninit]

i know he is not posted here. he is normally in the service plays and normally posted by CPAW. who, what, since when? Where (NY)? Why(record)? How($ or free) is Mighty Quinn..i normally see him at top of first page.. so he gets tracked easier than the rest.. he seems to be on quite a run. 5 or so days of winners..unlike most of these guys on here Quinn didnt seem to have much of a website. (or i didnt find it) Thanks in advance..

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

i know he is not posted here. he is normally in the service plays and normally posted by CPAW. who, what, since when? Where (NY)? Why(record)? How($ or free) is Mighty Quinn..i normally see him at top of first page.. so he gets tracked easier than the rest.. he seems to be on quite a run. 5 or so days of winners..unlike most of these guys on here Quinn didnt seem to have much of a website. (or i didnt find it) Thanks in advance..

He has small column in a NY paper Post or Daily news, from what I've seen written here about him he's pretty streaky.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Paul Leiner

Free Pick for Today

Game: Angels vs Blue Jays

Prediction: 25* Angels even

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

EZ'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox


(928) Chicago White Sox -1.5


(Listing Floyd and Guthrie)

The White Sox starting pitcher Gavin Floyd's split stats are like day and night. Floyd has pitched very well home and has been hammered on the road this season. Floyd is only 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA on the road while going 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field. Baltimore starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 7.64 and is among the league leaders in losses and home runs allowed. Guthrie has been horrible this season and has not had much success against the White Sox in his career posting a 1-3 record with a 5.06 ERA lifetime against Chicago. The White Sox are 24-6 in Floyd's last thirty home starts and I look for a big win by Chicago here. Play the White Sox on the runline.

2009 Free Selections Record 122-101 (54.7)